A Solar Bubble Is Brewing

By GoodGreed in Commentary No Comments

Solar’s performance lately is astonishing…  I did predict back in December that the solar industry’s prospects looked pretty bright (click here), but  my expectations have been succeeded.

Let me introduce you to some notable players….

Solar city has been on an absolute tear… I’ve been watching the intraday action for awhile and it’s absurd. The stock trades is trading at a “modest” 20X sales, has no profits, but looks like its going to the moon on Elon Musk’s SpaceX rocket ship.

First Solar is the least-risky play in the space because they are profitable and best-in-class. I own and think its going to $60 on the back of short sellers.

Canadian Solar is back from the dead. Among all the risky plays… this on is my favorite.

The Pain Trade Is Higher

By GoodGreed in Commentary No Comments

Regardless of the fact equities are approaching fair value and have been inflated by Fed stimulus I still see the possibility of a higher prices in the near term. In general, America is underinvested in equities (see graph below) Source. While the market doubled under Obama Americans irrationally sold stocks. These individuals see the market rise to new highs and constantly think we are at a top and due for a correction. Unless everyone who doesn’t own stocks already is insane, or they will eventually figure out they can’t pick tops and miss out on equity returns.

Apple bounced (as I predicted on twitter) off of its $419 support level and may have put in a tradable bottom for anyone looking to start a position. The risk/reward ratio is quite attractive if AAPL could get back to $500 by year end.

Another interesting bounce I saw was in Cliffs Natural CLF. Although it ended in the red, there was a 5% reversal this morning. I am long a small position and think there is a chance this name gets squeezed to the moon with the abundance of short sellers inhabiting it.

 

 

Ideas For The Month Of May

By GoodGreed in Commentary No Comments Tags: , , ,

May took me by surprise. I entered the month long about 50% of my assets and have found myself underinvested in seemingly endless parade of higher highs. Most market watchers like myself had anticipated lackluster stock performance…  how foolish. Of course there is still plenty of time left on the clock for disappointment.

Today was interesting in that the market spent its morning rallying to new highs on low volume. Around noon there was a clear reversal and by three o’clock it looked like a very bearish candle was to be printed on the daily chart… Bears must have been just about to celebrate when the bulls came out of nowhere and once again pushed prices higher.

I will try my best to remain 50% long and not add any new equity exposure until the summer clears… however I do see plenty of opportunities in individual names.

Here are some of my best ideas…

Apple has value, a 3% dividend, and a buy back program that repurchase 20% of the float. Stop telling me Samsung has a better products, that’s bullshit. A cheaper iPhone, china mobile deal, and a television will send this stock up 30%.

I smell a bubble forming in the solar space… so many shorts have been caught being stupid and they could push names like first solar up to obscene levels. I think $60 would be a fair valuation if they can deliver on the EPS they forecasted 2013… and with shorts in play that target could get blown out pretty fast.

This is my liquid natural gas export play. The natural gas boom will put this country on track for even greater greatness… we have so much of this stuff that we will become net exporters and I intend to capitalize under Obama’s blessings.

GPIC – This Company is tiny… less than $100M market cap it is very thinly traded but I like the name because it is overlooked. They sell casino chips and casino furniture to very major casinos… making it an excellent derivative on the global casino market.

Why The Long Break?

By GoodGreed in Commentary No Comments

Recently I took a little  break from writing about my trading activities because I started trading equities intraday as an employee for a firm in NYC and I just couldn’t afford any distractions during this transition. My job right now consist exclusively of intraday trading so this site will focus primarily on my independent swing trading and investment ideas.

 

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