How does it feel to be at the mercy of politicians?
Like you, I feel helpless, as irony would have it…. Republicans seem content on letting taxes go up for everyone.
Boehner and the house of representatives are a no-show in Washington, and we may have to wait until Boehner gets re-elected as speaker on January 3rd until real discussions can resume… because the best interest of Americans is to pay higher taxes until the speaker can ensure his political power is secure… duh.
To be honest, I am petrified of the American stock market and have been slapping myself in the face for not being completely purged of stocks during this debate. Many weeks ago I predicted this stalemate would cripple the markets… however I was fooled by “promising” discussions and smiley photos of Republicans and Democrats standing together.
For my ignorance, I lost a little over 3% in December… making it my worst month this year.
Overall I should end the year up around 15%… which is about in-line with the S&P 500. At the peak of the year I was looking at a 23% return. Letting that slide down to 15% was a horrible mistake… even though most hedge funds would trade places with me in a heart beat… 2012 was not a good year for me.
Today I have a 72% cash position… and the majority of stocks I own are international equities.
International markets have been on fire lately… maybe because people are so fed up with the united states self imploding, they are looking elsewhere to park cash… but also because the fundamentals of many emerging economies are strong. For instance, Thailand has a .6% unemployment rate… 5.8% GDP growth and their stock market is up over 35% this year.
Japan’s market is interesting, not yet on fire but it may be soon as the central bank recently announced QE infinity. Right now I am holding Toyota TM, and will look to add more Japanese exporters.
The only US stock trade I have conviction in right now is Weight Watchers WTW, with the catalyst being new year resolutions. Check my posting yesterday for evidence of the overwhelming interest in weight watchers post new years. I also saw a few multi-million dollar buys earlier today in WTW.
Right now the BEST outcome for the fiscal cliff debate will to postpone these tax hikes and spending cuts for another year. Write your elected representatives and tell them you want to KICK THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD! Instantly the markets will rally 3% higher.